Most of the debit/credit card fraud detection is based on transaction level rules or scores that target the fraud transactions happening in real time. Fraud prevention operation is struggling to stop fraud in real/near real time.
If we can predict which cards will likely have fraudulent activities within the next a few months, we can either reissue those cards today or build transaction level rules to monitor them. The long term card fraud prediction is, just like long term weather forecast, doable. At BDM, we have tested such a method and found the results are good and actionable.